The likelihood of a “city-killer” asteroid, named 2024 YRF, colliding with Earth has recently increased. This asteroid, about the size of New York’s Statue of Liberty or London’s Big Ben, was initially thought to have a 1.2% chance of hitting Earth on December 22, 2032. However, new predictions now show a 2.3% chance of a collision—significantly raising concerns among scientists and space agencies worldwide.
As a result, the International Asteroid Warning Network has informed the U.S. government, other planetary defense teams, and the United Nations Office of Outer Space Affairs. The asteroid’s updated risk has led to international efforts to study its potential impact. NASA has allowed scientists to use the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) to observe the asteroid’s size and predict the possible damage it could cause.
How Big is the Asteroid?
Asteroid 2024 YRF is believed to range in size from 40 meters (130 feet) to 90 meters (295 feet) in diameter. To refine its size estimate, the JWST will capture observations of the asteroid when it becomes most visible to Earth, with the first observation expected in March.
Potential Risk to Earth
According to the International Asteroid Warning Network, the asteroid’s “risk corridor” covers parts of the Pacific Ocean, South America, Africa, the Arabian Sea, and South Asia. If it hits, the impact could cause severe damage within a 31-mile radius, resulting in destructive consequences.
Experts believe the asteroid could release energy equivalent to 15 megatons of TNT, making it 100 times more powerful than the atomic bomb dropped on Hiroshima in 1945. While it is not expected to cause an extinction-level event, the potential damage is significant, with fatalities predicted in the hundreds of thousands.
What’s Next?
As experts work to refine predictions, the James Webb Space Telescope’s observations will help space agencies determine whether action is necessary to deflect the asteroid. With continued monitoring, scientists aim to improve their understanding of this potential threat and assess the necessary planetary defense measures.
