NASA has confirmed that asteroid 2024 YR4, once considered a potential threat, now has an almost zero chance of impacting Earth in December 2032. Updated trajectory models show a 99.9983 percent probability that the asteroid will safely pass by the planet, reducing previous concerns of a collision.
Revised Risk Assessment
Initially, asteroid 2024 YR4 had a 3.1 percent chance of striking Earth, but continued observations have significantly lowered the risk. According to NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) and the European Space Agency (ESA), the probability now stands at just 0.0017 percent for Earth and 1.7 percent for the Moon. This updated assessment follows precise calculations based on data collected from multiple telescopes.
Tracking and Future Observations
The asteroid, measuring between 130 and 300 feet wide, was first identified on December 27, 2024, and later flagged on NASA’s Sentry risk list. JPL scientists have been monitoring its orbit closely, using advanced tracking technology to refine impact predictions. The latest findings confirm there is no significant threat from asteroid 2024 YR4 for at least the next century.
Context and Similar Past Asteroid Cases
Several near-Earth objects have previously appeared on the risk list but were later removed as improved data reduced impact probabilities. This case highlights the importance of continuous observation and advanced modeling in asteroid tracking. Scientists will continue monitoring 2024 YR4 during its future orbits, with additional data expected to further lower the estimated risk.
NASA reassures that while asteroid monitoring remains a priority, no immediate threat exists, and Earth is safe from 2024 YR4’s trajectory in the foreseeable future.
