Both republicans and monarchists, two opposing ideological groups, are preparing to stage demonstrations in the Kathmandu Valley on the same day and at the same time on Chaitra 15. They plan to hold rallies and processions from different locations in the valley.
The republican movement is being led by the Socialist Front, which consists of the CPN (Maoist Center), CPN (Unified Socialist), Nepal Socialist Party, and the Netra Bikram Chand-led Communist Party of Nepal (CPN).
The monarchists, on the other hand, are led by 86-year-old former Panchayat leader Navaraj Subedi. However, the commander of Friday’s demonstration has been assigned to medical entrepreneur Durga Prasai.
Authorities’ Strategy to Prevent Clashes
The administration has adopted a strategy to prevent direct confrontations between the two groups. As a result, separate locations have been designated for their demonstrations.
According to Kathmandu’s Chief District Officer (CDO) Rishiram Tiwari, the Socialist Front has been allocated Exhibition Road for its gathering, while the monarchists will hold their rally at Tinkune.
Given the possibility of security challenges due to simultaneous protests by the two opposing groups, a meeting of the Central Security Committee was convened on Chaitra 10 to discuss the situation.
The meeting at the Ministry of Home Affairs was attended by Home Minister Ramesh Lekhak, Home Secretary Gokarna Mani Duwadi, Defense Secretary, Chief of Army Staff, Inspector General of Police (IGP) Deepak Thapa, Armed Police Force (APF) IGP Raju Aryal, Chief of the National Investigation Department Hutaraj Thapa, and other senior officials.
The meeting analyzed the security risks posed by the two demonstrations and directed the relevant authorities to make necessary preparations. Officials have stated that security strategies have already been devised accordingly.
Security Arrangements
According to AIG Tek Bahadur Tamang, head of the Kathmandu Valley Police Office at Ranipokhari, 2,500 police personnel will be deployed for the event, with the possibility of increasing the number if needed. “We have completed all security preparations. More than 2,500 police officers will be mobilized, and if necessary, additional personnel will be deployed,” he said.
Plainclothes police officers will also be deployed to prevent infiltration and identify potential infiltrators.
Similarly, the Armed Police Force (APF) has also completed its preparations. According to APF Spokesperson DIG Kumar Neupane, 50 platoons of armed police will be deployed on Chaitra 15. Since one platoon consists of 35 personnel, approximately 1,750 armed police officers will be on duty.
The APF’s intelligence bureau has analyzed the current political situation and potential risks associated with the demonstrations. Based on this analysis, the APF has formulated its security strategy.
While the Nepal Police will take the primary role in crowd control, the Armed Police Force will act as a supporting force. The National Investigation Department (intelligence agency) will also be deployed to gather information.
Special Attention to SEE Exams
As the Secondary Education Examination (SEE) is also taking place on Chaitra 15, the police have requested that processions be held only after 11 AM to avoid roadblocks and disruptions to the examination.
It is unclear how many people will participate in the demonstrations in Kathmandu. However, since both groups view the event as a show of strength, they are actively mobilizing supporters from districts outside the Kathmandu Valley.
The police administration, on the other hand, is focused on ensuring that security is not compromised, regardless of the number of participants. “It is difficult to predict the exact number of people who will attend the protests. Both sides have their claims,” a security officer said. “Our goal is to maintain peace, regardless of the crowd size.”
Prime Minister Oli Downplays the Demonstrations
Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli, speaking at an event on Thursday, stated that the protests would be ordinary and should not be exaggerated. “Processions of 10,000–15,000 people have taken place in Nepal before. There is no need to make a mountain out of a molehill. One rally will take place at Bhrikutimandap, and another at Koteshwor. That’s all,” he said.
Monarchist Group Under Surveillance
On Falgun 25, when former King Gyanendra Shah arrived in Kathmandu from Pokhara, monarchists gathered in Sinamangal to welcome him with a demonstration. At that time, the police exercised restraint and effectively controlled the crowd, earning praise for their handling of the situation.
The police were on high alert then as well. Officers who were not assigned to street duty, including those stationed at headquarters and other units, were instructed not to leave their posts until 9 PM.
With demonstrations from both the monarchists and republicans set to take place simultaneously, security concerns have increased. Authorities have developed strategies to prevent the two groups from encountering each other or facing infiltration attempts.
Prasai’s Group Restricted from Entering Ring Road
To prevent a confrontation between the two groups, the Kathmandu administration has decided not to allow the monarchists to enter the Ring Road. Meanwhile, the Socialist Front’s demonstration will remain within the Ring Road.
According to the security plan, the monarchists’ rally from Bhaktapur will move from Durga Prasai’s private residence to Koteshwor and then to Tinkune. Another rally will proceed from Jorpati, Boudha, and Chabahil to Tinkune. Similarly, another procession will travel from Gongabu and Samakhusi via Chabahil to Tinkune. The rally from Kalanki will move through Balkhu, Satdobato, and Koteshwor before reaching Tinkune.
Meanwhile, the Socialist Front’s rally will stay within the Ring Road, heading towards Bhrikutimandap. The processions will start from Babarmahal-Maitighar, Kupondole-Thapathali, and Sorhakhutte-Pakanajol before gathering at Bhrikutimandap.
Since the Socialist Front’s rally will remain within the Ring Road while Prasai’s group will not be allowed inside, security officials believe this strategy will prevent any direct encounters or clashes between the two groups.
Prasai Denied Permission to Hold Rally at Balkhu
On Mangshir 7, 2079, Prasai’s group held a demonstration in Balkhu. Security analysts believe that allowing Prasai’s group to protest in Balkhu was a serious mistake.
Prasai has repeatedly made strong remarks against the Marwari community, even inciting physical attacks against them. Despite these past statements, Balkhu was chosen as the protest venue for his group last year, even though the area has a high concentration of the Marwari community.
Security officials believe that this decision posed significant security risks. Consequently, this time, Prasai’s group has been assigned Tinkune instead.
At that time, DSP Roshan Khadka was in charge of field operations. When Prasai’s group attempted to enter the Kalimati area, his strategic decision-making helped prevent a major incident.
Considering this past experience, Prasai’s group has been instructed to use the Ring Road route and gather only at Tinkune.
